Economic News Favors Democrats; In the Short Run

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donkey-elephant race.jpgIn today's business news, Ford sales rise 25% as auto manufacturers see growth in year over year sales. Manufacturing sees 9th straight month of growth. Consumer spending rises for 6th straight month.

The bank bailouts saved the American economy from a downward spiral that could have easily left more than 25% of the labor force unemployed, deficits 50 or more percent higher, and an absence of investors to float our government borrowing to fight off the second great depression. Republicans deserve credit for saving the financial foundation of American commerce. Democrats deserve credit for following through with it, and the stimulus package which has made a significant difference in keeping unemployment on an improved track from 750,000 jobs lost per month down to roughly 23,000 in March of this year. Which in turn, accounts for some of the consumer spending and economic activity increases.

Democrats have improved the health care financial base for 10's of millions of Americans over the next few years, have improved world opinion of America in the foreign affairs arena, negotiated international cooperation for securing nuclear materials and the bilateral reduction in nuclear weapons in the U.S. and Russia. Democrats have recovered significant 100's of billions of bailout funds, reducing current deficits by an equal amount.

And now, Democrats are, at long last, going after the big banks and financial traders that were central to creating this Great Recession. As well they should, since their assistance in passing and signing the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 was the first domino to bring down our economy by overturning the Glass-Steagall Act which prevented behemoth multi-lines of business, too big to fail banks, to come into existence in the first place. Though, I hasten to add, Democrats are not all on board for breaking up these behemoths in their new legislation debates and designs.

Democrats are also seeking compensating legislation to the Supreme Court's conservative ruling giving carte blanche to labor unions and corporations to campaign for or against candidates depending on how those candidates may favor the interests of those unions and corporations. The new proposal would require stringent full disclosure requirements made to the public and attached to any advertising paid for by unions or corporations for or against candidates. Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is all beside himself, now contradicting himself as blatantly as any politician ever has. During the McCain[-Feingold campaign finance reform debates, McConnell opposed the bill calling for full public disclosure of campaign financing by corporations and unions instead. Now that Democrats are proposing that very thing, McConnell is 100% opposed to the legislation. The hypocrisy doesn't get piled higher than this.

It appears now, also, that the impossible a few weeks ago, may be undertaken by Democrats this Summer, comprehensive legal and illegal immigration reform in an election year. That is a bizarre twist and turn on conventional political wisdom brought on by Arizona's taking the matter into their own hands for their State, in the absence of any effective solution coming from the federal government. Which gives credence to that old adage, 'necessity is the mother of the necessary', to mimic a Bushism.

OK. Enough lauding of Democrats. They are still riding a Titanic in the night headed toward the twin ice bergs unflatteringly named, Debt and Deficits. D&D are going to bring Democrats down in November's elections. It is this writer's opinion that shrinking their majority in the House and Senate will feel like justice to the majority of American voters. As everyone who manages their finances well, knows; the time to save is before a crisis or emergency occurs. Far too many Democrats have used their legislative votes in Congress to favor the largess of their constituents back home to the detriment of the nation's finances. It is a tale decades old. Far too many Democrats supported the off-book emergency spending appropriations by the Republicans during the Bush Jr. years, resulting in the doubling of the national debt under Republicans. They couldn't have done it without some Democrat's votes, and there were many.

So, here is a not so disguised prediction on November's elections. Loyal Republicans and not so loyal conservatives will vote Republican in the Fall. Loyal Democrats and not so loyal liberals will vote Democrat in the Fall. Nothing new there. Independents however, who lean neither toward Democrats or Republicans, and who are greater in number than ever before, will be voting for independents, or anti-incumbent, regardless of the incumbent's party affiliation. This will result in Democrats losing a few seats in the Senate, and more in the House, but, not so many as to lose their majority in either house of Congress.

I invite nay-sayers to comment on this prediction, so that I may Lord it over them in November how obvious and insightful my prediction was. Of course, if my prediction is proved wrong, I will consider an apology to the nay-sayers early on in my vacation, while I still have time to forget about it before my return. Turnabout is, after all, fair play in politics.

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This page contains a single entry by David R. Remer published on May 3, 2010 1:31 PM.

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