New Anti-Incumbent Movement

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The new anti-incumbent movement is just beginning. It will grow, and there is nothing the Democratic and Republican Parties can do about that. Here are the only 3 scenarios possible, and why the Republocrats will be powerless against Vote Out Incumbents Democracy and a growing number of anti-incumbent voices like Anti-Incumbents.com, No To Incumbents, and Tenure Corrupts.

Scenario 1: Republicans retain control of both Houses. Despite the polls, swing voters are impressionable and fickle by and large. The Republicans have a deeply embedded and well oiled and maintained get out the vote machine in every precinct in this country that matters to them. Polls favor challengers today. However, as Nov. 7 nears, the unmatched Republican precinct machines accompanied by Republicans significantly larger campaign treasure chest, and gerrymandering can still potentially deliver a majority control of both Houses by holding onto enough incumbent seats.

If this is the case, what we will witness over the next 2 years is a battle between the White House and Congress waged by Republicans against Republicans. The Big Tent Republican Party has split into its many factions, and the glue that held it together has been dissolved by broken promises and disappointment of so many of its factions. In 2008, it will be difficult to figure out just what the Republican Party platform really stands for, very much as the case today with the Democratic Party. The anti-incumbent movement will grow, as gridlock and delays in solving our nation's most difficult problems, also grow.

Scenario 2: Democrats take the House or Senate, but, not both. If Democrats take the House, the politics between the House and White House will be fierce, and gridlocked. Pres. Bush will lack the 'rubber-stamp Congress' and necessary Committees in the House to get nearly any of his agenda's on the table. Conversely, Republicans will attack Democrats as obstructionist and unable to act on the important issues of the day, due to little compromise on bills with the Senate and no cooperation from the White House.

If the Democrats win the Senate, but, not the House, the politics will be different, but, the grid lock in the compromise committees between Senate and House will continue to grow anti-incumbent sentiment on the part of voters, as inaction and ineffective compromise makes our growing national problems worse by the year.

Senario 3: Democrats take both houses of Congress. This is the more difficult scenario to predict in terms of whether or not anti-incumbent sentiment will be fueled. It is hard to imagine, but, not impossible, to see President Bush taking a far more conciliatory stance with Congress, especially in his last year, in order to get things accomplished which he can add to his legacy in the hopes of shining up the tarnish that has covered it since the invasion of Iraq and the Katrina debacle.

But, there is a Catch-22 for Pres. Bush should he go that route, since conciliation on Democratic agendas would require his implicit concession that so many of his policies were wrong in the first place. And be sure, the Democrats will control the agenda regarding legislation, spending, borrowing, oversight and investigation committees.

If on the other hand, Pres. Bush vows to veto anything coming out of the Democratic Congress that attempts to solve the major problems of the nation, gridlock and anti-incumbent sentiment will grow as Democrats and Republicans take accusations of fault to new highs.

The Future: In the end, regardless of the outcome of November's elections, it is nearly impossible to see an outcome that would enamor voters to incumbents. It is also very difficult to see how our borders can possibly be made secure by 2008, our deficits zeroed out, hourly wage earner's incomes rise significantly, save perhaps, for the lowest earners at a new minimum wage. And of course, it is nearly impossible to see the U.S. extricating itself from Iraq before 2008. And if none of these occur, the anti-incumbent sentiment will grow as the DNC's and RNC's supporter rolls erode away to the ever growing class of Americans called Independent Voters.

This, of course, bodes well for voter's potential to take back government for themselves from the lobbyists, wealthy campaign donors and corporate interests, by ejecting ever greater numbers of incumbents. The more incumbents who get the boot election after election, the more motivated will be their replacements to serve the voter's and the nation's interests first and foremost, putting party and privileged influence aside.

You see, that will become their insurance policy for getting reelected. And their badge of honor will come in the form of challenging the status quo leadership in their own parties, and within the rules and procedures of Congress which stand in the way of conducting the people's business efficiently, cost effectively, and with enduring solutions which stand the test of time in solving our largest national problems.

Wearing such a badge of honor at election time, will give moderate and middle Americans, from both the liberal and conseravative camps, viable and promising ballot box choices once again.

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This page contains a single entry by David R. Remer published on October 24, 2006 4:03 PM.

Republicans No More! was the previous entry in this blog.

Border Fence: Yes! is the next entry in this blog.

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