Why This Election Can't Be Predicted

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Polls simply cannot predict this presidential race. Below are comments from voters that demonstrate why that is. Two examples from Republicans follow:

"We were given the idea that there were weapons of mass destruction, but where are they? They said they were so sure. When I was over there I looked. I was on an intelligence gathering team, we all looked. We found nothing. It was just a lie. That wasn't a proper use of American troops. It wasn't a proper use of my life, my friends' lives, or the Marines I saw die around me."-- Lee Buttrill, Sergeant, USMC, Iraq War Veteran

"I've been a lifelong Republican since I was old enough to vote and I though that Bush would be fiscally conservative. I feel betrayed. I don't believe that a government should be engaging in reckless spending, recklessly stretching the military to the point of breaking, and recklessly trying to alter the constitution that this country is built upon. That's why I'm voting for John Kerry." -- Kim Mecklenburg, Financial Consultant; Sergeant, USMC, Veteran (1)

Two examples from Third Party folks follow:

I can safely vote for Nader without fear of affecting the elections outcome. I live in the Deep South. As discussed previously on this web site [Watchblog], if your state is overwhelmingly for either candidate, vote your conscience.
Posted by Bob J Young (WatchBlog)

The president looks like he is probably going to win this election- and I will not be upset because I think he is a better choice than John Kerry. But he has shown no willingness to tackle the serious flaws in his domestic agenda and will not garner my vote this time around. Misha Tseytlin[Libertarian]

Two examples of Democrats follow:

“With just over 90 days left before the election I feel extremely confident that the message, priorities, and policies of President George W. Bush will better serve America and the people of Minnesota over the next four years.” St. Paul Mayor Randy Kelly [DFL]

"I am a Democrat born and bred (albeit moderate to conservative), and I am truly sick of how my Democratic party has treated this president from the get-go. I have many Democrat friends, and have alienated many of them because I tell them that I don't believe that Bush is as terrible as they make him out to be. He didn't steal the election. That's just the way our election process is and has been. He made the right decisions concerning Afghanistan and Iraq (they would be skewering him right now if he had done nothing), and he seems to be fairly centrist. Jeanne Asdourian, Corte Madera CA

It takes for many, an overwhelming reason to vote against one's identified party. In America, it often requires redefining one's values and priorities in order to do so, and that is a time and energy investment in one's political role, that won't happen without a lot of motivation. This election may be causing more reevaluation of party affinity and party candidates than any since President Lincoln ran for the office. Throw in what is predicted to be a significant increase in voter turnout over the 2000 election and huge efforts to turn out the youth vote whom have never voted before and don't show up on likely voter and registered voter polls, this election becomes almost impossible to predict until the votes are actually counted.

(1) Quotes From MoveOn.Org communication.

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This page contains a single entry by David R. Remer published on September 13, 2004 7:06 PM.

GOP and Democratic Party Extinction? was the previous entry in this blog.

Election About Bankrupting America is the next entry in this blog.

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