Kerry commands poll lead, But...

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A new LA Times poll reports: "Widespread unease over the country's direction and doubts about President Bush's policies on Iraq and the economy helped propel Sen. John F. Kerry to a solid lead among voters nationwide, according to a new Times poll." However, in the swing states, Kerry and Bush are still neck and neck. This race may be setting up to be a popular vote for Kerry with an Electoral College win for Bush.

Surprising to this writer is the commanding lead Kerry has over Bush in California, 51% to 39% with Nader pulliing 4%. Any who thought there would be a Schwarzeneggar coattail effect, are being proved wrong in the polls at this time. Swing states include:


  • Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado

  • Delaware, Florida, Illinois

  • Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana

  • Maryland, Michigan, New Hampshire

  • New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon

  • Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee

  • Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin

If one looks at the percentages of unsure voters (scroll down page at link) in these swing states along with the Nader percentage, it is clear that if Kerry wants insurance for a win, he is going to have to reach out to Nader once again and strike a bargain to secure some of that Nader vote in those swing states.

A Washington Post article explains why Bush gets no boost from the economy as follows:

"It all goes back to Iraq," said Steven Valerga, 50, a Republican in Martinez, Calif., who voted for Bush in 2000 but plans to vote for Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) in November. "It's a drain on the economy, when there's so much needed elsewhere. My gosh, we didn't need to be there."

War has usually been good for the economy in the short run, and this one appears no different. In the first three months of this year, defense work accounted for nearly 16 percent of the nation's economic growth, according to the Commerce Department.

But amid the car bombings, assassinations and continuing casualties, voters are generally pessimistic about the direction the nation is taking. Bush's negative ratings are rising not just on the economy but also on energy policy, foreign affairs and his handling of the prescription drug issue. Voters fixated on Iraq so far are not willing to see the improving economy through a positive prism, according to pollsters and Bush campaign aides.

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This page contains a single entry by David R. Remer published on June 10, 2004 3:42 PM.

News Behind Reagan’s Passing was the previous entry in this blog.

Britain may predict November elections? is the next entry in this blog.

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