Kerry Pushes past Bush in Polls

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It is an old maxim in politics that the only person who can beat an incumbent is the incumbent themself. Often it is quoted as "The election is his/hers to lose". Polls this week appear to support that maxim as Kerry pushes past Bush in a number of polls. Kerry's platform is still relatively undefined in the minds of voters, but, President Bush's and his administration's actions are now everywhere in the media and being evaluated by voters. The polls are showing Bush's record, including his war on terrorism, are defeating him. The public is slow to respond to political news, but, given time and media saturation, the voting public is not easily duped or deterred by "doublespeak", spin, or contradictions.

A CBS article regarding its poll states:

Americans believe the Bush Administration is cooperating with the 9/11 Commission, but that there is still more to learn: most say the Administration isn't telling the entire truth about what they knew before 9/11.

With so many former administration personnel fired or quit coming forth with testimony that the Bush administration was on a mission and no facts or events were going to deter it from its original course, the American people are awakening to the realization that this President, rather than responding to events, may actually have partially been the cause of them: the rise in deficits and national debt, the growth in the number of terrorists gunning for the U.S., and the growth in the number of programs proposed that fail on their face to address our nation's most important needs.

Programs like the illegal immigrant amnesty program, moon and mars colonization programs, undermining the funding for public schools with voucher programs and undermining children's education by underfunding No Child Left Behind, and budgeting for a federal promotion of marriage, are mounting up in voters minds as ineffective, wasteful, and misuse of our nation's resources in addressing the more important concerns of voters like national debt, protecting our borders from terrorist entry, and exporting American jobs.

In a Los Angeles Times poll and article the following is quoted:

The survey found presumed Democratic nominee John F. Kerry holding a 49% to 46% advantage over Bush among registered voters, a difference within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Adding independent candidate Ralph Nader to the mix resulted in little change. In the three-man race, Kerry drew 47%, Bush 44% and Nader 4%.
This poll too shows "Most Americans accept Richard Clarke's key criticisms of President Bush's anti-terrorism record, but a majority also thinks that politics influenced the timing of the charges by the former White House aide, a Los Angeles Times poll has found."

These polls however must be countered with two other state polls reported on Taegan Goddard's Political Wire site which reports:

In Pennsylvania, President Bush "has moved to a six-point lead" over Sen. John Kerry in this key battleground state, the latest Daily News/CN8 Keystone poll shows. (Full poll results are available.)
In Indiana, President Bush leads Sen. John Kerry, 52% to 37%, according to the latest Bellwether Poll.

Indiana with a long history of being a KKK state, is not a great surprise. Pennsylvania's poll demonstrates that Bush's platform issues on morality and pro-choice still resonate with large numbers of voters in various parts of the country.

Polls this early in the game are no predictor's of election results. They do however, provide some evidence of the impact of candidate's campaign strategies and tactics and media coverage of issues of the day. Somewhere in the Whitehouse in the back of a political mind is a growing question of Karl Rove's ability to improve upon the year 2000's election results. Sometimes no amount of political strategy can overcome an incumbent's record. It remains to be seen if November will be one of those times.

by David R. Remer, PoliWatch.Org

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This page contains a single entry by David R. Remer published on April 2, 2004 7:33 PM.

Bush's week in review was the previous entry in this blog.

Two Wrongs Will Not Make A Right is the next entry in this blog.

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