Kerry Steamroller: Part II

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By David R. Remer - ( PoliWatch.Org - WatchBlog )

Kerry wins Wisconsin by an apparent single digit margin, but exit polls indicate it was a landslide. Polls show Kerry received a large majority of the Democratic vote. The primary was open to Independents and Republicans as well. Edwards got a majority of the Independent vote, but, lost large to Kerry amongst Democrats.

As I pointed out in a previous article, Kerry provided voters the one overriding issue and quality that disparate groups in the Democrat party would need to unify them - potential to send Bush packing in November. The exit polls tonight as reported on MSNBC with Chris Matthews hosting, showed that beating Bush in November is the unifying interest of Democratic voters, and Kerry's frontrunner status gave voters that confidence in him to get the job done.

Normally, a frontrunner, this early in the primaries would make the frontrunner a target in other primaries. This phenomenon is not at play in this election cycle. The reason is the Democrats having a common priority, unseating President Bush from the Oval Office. All other differences among a huge majority of Democrats have receded. It is probably safe to say, that Edwards' popularity amongst Independents in Wisconsin, will have little problem shifting allegiance to Kerry, for their goal is not dissimilar from Democrats, just less a priority amongst other priorities, such as likeability.

The large Democratic candidate field created confusion for Democrats trying to decide who, among so many, could win? The psychological impact of Kerry coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire with clear wins, was devastating to the other candidates. Kerry's strong showing in the first primary and caucus of the season helped bewildered voters make up their mind. His frontrunner status took the ambiguity out of the equation for a majority of Democratic voters. That frontrunner status turned Kerry into a Steamrolling machine over the other Democratic candidates and short of a major gaffe, that steamroller will carry him to the nomination.

If Nader decides not to run (very likely), the Green Party nominee will not have the 2000 effect of drawing Democratic and Independent voters away from the Democratic candidate as it did then. Given the dead even numbers of Republicans and Democrats in the country today, this could result in the Kerry steamroller effect carrying Kerry right into the Oval Office. The reason is that the Republican Party is likely going to lose some conservative Independents to the Libertarian candidate (a Nader effect in reverse) and a small, but perhaps significant number of conservatives failing to show up at the polls because of broken faith with the conservative agenda by President Bush.

I can see the slogan in October - JFK IS BACK TO STAY. That is John F. Kerry

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This page contains a single entry by David R. Remer published on February 17, 2004 10:54 PM.

Kerry Affair Rumored - Nothing to it so far. was the previous entry in this blog.

Ralph Nader throws hat into race. is the next entry in this blog.

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